The Trading Opportunities After the Vote of the Brexit Agreement

We are in the final months to give a solution to Brexit, and we have all taken on this very important act in the European Union, but the impositions on the check to be paid by the United Kingdom for this break is a very hard stone in the shoe.

Today January 15 is the first vote in the House of Commons of the United Kingdom and in which it is expected to win the NO, but this NO is already discounted, what is analyzed is how much IS.

What if…

Parliament Says YES

This is the least likely option to happen today, this would be good news for all the European Union stock exchanges and would leave the pound and the Fts100 to operate against.

Defeat but by Little Margin

If the vote goes NO by less than 100 votes, no movement of the markets is expected, in this scenario May would go to renegotiate some fringes with Europe, remember that Merkel already called Teresa May to have this margin to negotiate between the first vote and the second against what Donald Tusk president of the European Council, who said that the conditions are not negotiable unless May softens any of their demands with the customs.

Related: What is Brexit?
Related: The “No-Deal” Brexit Scenario and What It Means for the Currency Markets?

The NO is Imposed by Wide Margin

If this happens; May could see how drums sound against his position including threats of electoral advance and voices calling for a new referendum on Brexit.

With this scenario, the margin that May would have is Minimum because the exit from the European Union to today is March 29 with or without agreement.

Total Break without Agreement

This scenario is unexplored and the most convulsive, community regulations would cease to apply in the UK on March 30 drastically.

This is the worst thing that can happen for Ireland and possibly many of the companies that are there, and civil aviation companies would suffer a strong correction on the stock market, as well as an opportunity to see how the Dollar strengthens against the Euro and the Pound.

NO Brexit

The Court of Justice of the European Union ruled that the United Kingdom is entitled to unilaterally for the Brexit. This means that if there is no agreement before March 29, and in the face of a forced exit, it could be a decision at the last minute. on the Brexit, the continuation unilaterally within a European Union.

If this occurs we could see increases of 10% in a single day of all European stock exchanges on average.

All this we will know in less than 75 days.

Borja Salvador

 

Borja Salvador
Business Development Manager
bsalvador@tvmarkets.com